Team of Rivals or Opportunist Politics?

Like most global citizens, I was overwhelmed with pride and joy when Obama was sworn in as the 44th President of the United States. My eyes were almost welled with tears - maybe there were a sniffling or two - as I witnessed a black man ascended to the highest office in land after over two hundred years of history marred with racial injustices and inhuman subjugation. Despite this truly defining moment in American history, one has to be cautious, or perhaps hold a healthy skepticism, of what the Obama administration will be in the coming years. The fact remains that while he is indeed the fresh air needed to cleanse the toxic swampy atmosphere of Beltway politics, he has managed to pick a cabinet team solely consists of old Washington hands, particularly Clintonistas. How well this rather unfortunate cabinet selection bode for the administration's future policy-making endeavors shall remain to be seen but as I presently look into the political crystal glass, the forecasts seem to be a bit cloudy with scattering rains.

Domestically, I think, is where Obama administration will make its biggest and long-lasting impact. The Democrats are pretty unified on this front and my impression is that virtually every Democrat is clamoring for FDR-like New Deal solutions to the host of domestic problems the US is gravely facing right now. Massive investment in public infrastructure such as highways, national and state parks, energy utilities and such to boost domestic employment and GDP can be expected from the administration. There will also be a vigorous push for self-sacrifice and community involvement through AmeriCorps and other voluntary-type programs. Huge injection of spending is also to be expected in the education sector especially early-childhood and free lunch programs, an increase Pell grants for tertiary education and an expansion of job retraining program to combat un- and under-employment. As far as domestic policies go, depending on the degree of hostility he faces from the Congressional Republicans, I think Obama has the chance to be an FDR reincarnate. Just make sure that the money goes to people who deserve it and not the Wall Street fat cats who feed at the public trough.

Internationally is where Obama will be facing his greatest challenge and I honestly think his achievements in this arena will be mediocre at best - unless if he's willing to make a sharp radical break from the Clinton paradigm, which now looks highly unlikely. Three major international issues will sure to occupy most, if not all, of the administration's time: global warming, war on terror (Iraq and Afghanistan), and the Arab-Israeli conflict.

The first issue, global warming, is highly doable: Kyoto treaty will be re-ratified by the US and the administration will play an active role in combating global warming and other environmental problems - domestically and internationally. But the possibility for success in the latter two issues - war on terror and Arab-Israeli conflict - seems pretty bleak.

Obama has changed his Iraq policy numerous times that it's hard to pinpoint what he will do now that he actually has the power to make the change. If I'm not mistaken, he last advocated for a gradual withdrawal from Iraq within a 16-month time frame and redirect two divisions to Afghanistan. This is obviously a far cry from his earlier call for an immediate withdrawal. When the grinding reality of Beltway politics of compromising and wheeling-dealing finally sets in, the 16-month turns to 24 and full withdrawal turns to partial. The Uniter becomes The (seriously compromised) Compromiser!

The Arab-Israeli conflict will be the biggest disappointment of all for the Obama administration if he does not deviate from the current track laid before him by former Clinton aides. This is already evident in Obama's mostly muted and occasionally inane response to the Gaza massacre by the Israeli Defense Force (IDF). For as long as the US refuses to negotiate on equal terms with the Palestinians, particularly Hamas, and sever its "special relationship" with Israel, no meaningful and sustainable peace can be attained in the region. Hamas, along with other "terrorist-designate" groups like Iran, must be diplomatically engaged and be brought to the negotiating table to engender trust and cooperation. The years of reckless display of brute military strength and half-hearted diplomacy have failed miserably and it's about time to try a novel approach.

It's very unlikely that US approach to the Middle East, especially the Arab-Israeli conflict, is going to be radically changed. A cursory look at the coterie of Obama aides reveals a tight-knit group of hardcore pro-Zionist hacks like Rahm Emmanuel, Dennis Ross, etc; essentially people the Israeli embassy in the US and the all-powerful America-Israel Political Action Committee (AIPAC) have direct access to. If the best Obama can offer the Palestinian is the bantustan-like, highly deformed and deeply unfair two-state solution similar to the Clinton's 2000 Camp David summit, then his approach will be a total failure.

I don't pretend to know the solution to the intractable Arab-Israeli conflict but there are several first steps the new administration can adopt toward presenting itself as an honest broker, namely severely cutting the annual military and foreign aid to Israel to the tune of 30 billion dollars, which reinstatement contingent on Israel completely dismantling all illegal settlements beyond the Green Line and returning dispossessed land back to the Palestinians. Threats have been used to this effect but as usual it's more hot-air rhetoric than anything else. Also get Hamas to the negotiating table despite the vehement refusal of Israel and the Palestinian Authority. Hamas won power through democratic means - unlike its Fatah counterpart in West Bank - and should not be placed in the same league as Al-Qaeda or the Taliban, and it deserves a seat among other players in the region. Ultimately, the US has to look beyond the two-state solution and push for untried radical idea such as the one-state solution. I read somewhere that before Obama ran for the presidency, in Chicago, he befriended Ali Abunimah, the founder of Electronic Intifada and the vocal proponent of the one-state solution. Maybe it will do his administration good if he reads Abunimah's book on finding a solution to the conflict. Better yet, get him into the administration in an advisory capacity as a countervailing force to the dominant Zionist perspective. I've listened to Ali Abunimah's lectures several times and he's such an erudite and level-headed speaker who makes a highly compelling case for the one-state solution, of which I wholeheartedly agree with.

I believe that the only way that Obama administration can be successful in the foreign policy arena is to first be successful domestically. Only when he has solved many of the current domestic crises he then will be gifted with a deep political cachet and high approval rating to be in turn used to solve some of the seemingly intractable global conflicts. This is especially important to have in his arsenal as the opposition from the establishment and other vested interests will be relentless and ferocious. Failure or sub-par results in dealing with domestic crises will not bode well for his foreign policies as his opponents can use the former to clobber him on the latter. I'm still keeping the fire of faith alive though the candle is flickering rather erratically right now. But boy, it will a one fantastically tumultuous ride for the next eight years - okay, I'm being a bit presumptious here!