Throw The Bums Out Already!!!

CHECK UP-TO-DATE RESULTS

2006 SENATE election results

2006 HOUSE election results

Wisconsin election results

I haven't been this excited about an election, a midterm election at that, since I volunteered for the Nader's presidential campaign in 2000. Twelve years of Republican domination of the government is long enough; it's time to throw those fear-mongering, war-loving, people-hating, gun-toting bums out of office. There is a certain giddiness in the air among the Democratic circle of the prospect to regain control of Congress, not unlike the tectonic shift in 1994 that swept in the Gingrich "revolutionaries" and ended the Democrats' forty-year stranglehold on Congress.

While the Republicans back in 1994 put forth their so-called "Contract With America" manifesto--essentially a reiteration of their agenda in a much simplified, bullet-point format--there is no equivalent of far-reaching, ideologically-significant, much less unified, political tract on the Democratic side currently. Why is this the case, and will its absence bear any impact on the voters' perception of the Democrats and the Democratic party?

As a "Big Tent" party that has to juggle wildly diverse, frequently contradicting, interests of its components, for the Democratic party to come up with a coherent, universally-agreed manifesto is simply next to impossible. Here's an overview of the groups currently seeking political shelter under the Democratic umbrella: the centrist New Democrats; the conservative blue-dog Democrats, mostly the southern "Dixiecrats"; the Old Left pro-labor but socially-conservative Democrats (mostly from the decaying Industrial Belt of the Midwest); the New Left liberals who formed the radical wing of the party; and others. This is not including further division within these groups, especially among the New Left liberals, ranging from the moderately liberal members who are content with gradual, incremental changes in government to the more ideologically-driven members who are seeking wider systemic and cultural changes. The diversity of the party is also reflected in its demographic; blacks, hispanics, women, gays and lesbians help to dictate the direction, and not to add, the fate, of the Democratic party. This simply illustrates the sheer impossibility of reconciling these divergent interests and maintaining party discipline.

Compare this to the 1994 Republican political machine. The Republican party (GOP) is effectively divided into two camps: the socially-conservative faction and the economically-conservative faction. While there are many differences--culturally and ideologically--between these two conservative groups, they do share several intersecting interests and both are willing to cast aside differences for the sake of greater political expediency, manifested in the institutional success of the GOP. There are much, much less points of contention within the GOP, which allow for greater party discipline and the dissemination of coherent, unified political messages. It's much easier to whip its members into submission and exclude a few fringe dissenting components, namely the pathetic Log Cabin Republicans (the so-called gays and lesbians faction of the GOP). It also helps that an overwhelming majority of the GOP are racially mono-dimensional. Different racial groups face different sets of issues, and not having to deal with other races' issues, at least substantively, is certainly a huge asset for the GOP. This also explains why the GOP was successful in proposing "Contract With America" while the present Democrats could not even agree on what strategies to employ to take advantage of Bush's immense unpopularity, much less coming up with a universally-agreed, far-reaching and politically-shattering platform for public consumption.

Will the lack of high-minded ideals hamper the Democrats' success in the election today? Or will Bush's rock-bottom approval rating, the Iraqi quagmire, and the Republican party's corruption (and sexual) scandals be enough to motivate erstwhile conservatives and the cantankerous independents to vote Democratic? If it's moral and political outrage that fuels voters, then the Democratic party holds a bright chance of making an enormous gain in this election since voters would vote not for the party per se, but simply for the sake of change in leadership. Since this is a two-party system, the only pragmatic choice left on the ballot is the Democratic party. If voters still place a higher value on ideology and concrete party platform over their anti-incumbent indignation, then there is less of a chance for the Democratic party to win convincingly in this election.

Here's my lazy prediction on today's election, especially in the battleground states, and I'll not comment on the Wisconsin's election since the Democratic victory here is a foregone conclusion. Mark Green? Dave Magnum? John Gard? Give me a break!

Ohio: Democratic sweep - both gubernatorial and senatorial races. The fact that the Republican National Committee pulled out funding for Ohio Republican candidates a few weeks before the election is a tell-tale sign that it has all but given up on winning these races.

Pennsylvania: Another Democratic sweep - As long as Senator Rick "Man-on-Animal" Santorum is kicked out of office, I don't care how the rest of elections go. Bob Casey Jr. will kick Santorum's ass in the Senate race and Ed Rendell will retain his governorship. Let this be a lesson to Lynn Swann that popularity on the football field does not translate into a viable political vehicle.

Missouri: Claire McCaskill will eke out a victory over Republican Jim Talent in the Senate race.

Montana: Republican Conrad Burns is facing a stiff challenge from Jon Tester, and Tester will come out ahead in the final count (this is my upset prediction).

Michigan: Democratic senator, Debbie Stabenow, will retain her seat.

Virginia: It'll be close and as much as I'd love to see the racist Republican George Allen voted out of the office, I think he'll still manage to squeeze in a victory, thanks to the ever-growing conservative exurban (between suburban and rural) population and the tepid challenge from the Democratic opponent, Jim Webb.

Note: I don't comment on any House races because they are too numerous, but my overall sense is that the Democrats will make major inroads in traditionally-conservative districts and win a lot of them.

It then begs the final question: Will there be any significant changes, and most importantly, reversal of Bush's destructive policies AND a robust check on the executive branch, if the Democrats manage to take over Congress? I doubt it, but that's the reality of a two-party system--choosing the lesser of two evils.